It's official, as long as Obama is President, the U.S. will most likely never intervene militarily in Syria. The CNN report filed a week ago attests to this. If the second Bush was edging for war in the days before the actual invasion of Iraq even with doubtful intelligence on Saddam's supposed possession of nuclear weapons and its ever more crazy demands on the regime (which Saddam assented to by the way) Obama is the exact opposite. Despite credible evidence, supported by U.S. diplomats in Turkey, foreign intelligence agencies and actual casualties on the ground that a limited use of chemical agents was in fact employed by the regime of Bashar al-Assad, Obama is skirting his own red line on the guise that more evidence is needed.
In the report filed by Chelsea Carter, Obama reiterates this red line - again, and again it will be conveniently overlooked even as more evidence of chemical use is deployed by al-Assad, limited or full scale because fundamentally, Obama is loathe to involve America in another foreign war. Well at least one in which foot soldiers will be deployed. Obama seems to prefer the safe, convenient and death free drones that has significantly been used more often in his presidency.
Syria will without doubt transform itself into a Second Lebanon with a splattering of Iraqi characteristics, that is, a Civil War that will rage on for probably the next five to ten years coupled with even more ferocious sectarian violence than is now pulsating between Iraqi Sunnis and Shiites. Unfortunately, whether America intervenes or not, Syria will be a tinderbox that will unravel from the seams. Strife is virtually guaranteed for Syria in the foreseeable future - the alternative to the collapse of the current regime is civil war, the survival of the status quo will still be civil war, as in fact it already is. However, the collapse of the al-Assad dynasty will not only bring about a potentially long civil war, it will definitely bring to power a more Islamic, radical, fundamentalist and anti-Wester, Iran leaning government that will in fact be far worse, far brutal, and far dangerous for the world community.
It seems that the world has no better choice in fact than to work for an engagement of the current regime without pontificating about its "sins." Only constructive, non-judgmental communicative action will be the most reasonable, realistic and for all intents and purpose, safe way to proceed with this dilemma. Bashar al-Assad is brutal, I'll give him that, but to wish for his downfall is also to wish for a fundamentally myopic, closed-minded rebel government inoculated by the spirituality of the Muslim Brotherhood - think Egypt and Mohammed Morsy. Democracy will not sprout with the downfall of the Assad dynasty, only a more oppressive replacement that is anything but secular or democratic or reasonable.
So then it goes without saying that America's intervention will neither bring sustainable peace nor credible public institutions in Syria. America's absence will definitely protect more American lives from another foreign debacle the American people cannot stomach any longer.
Welcome to the Syria Puzzle - where no solution is the solution.
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