Natan Sachs recently wrote an article on Foreign Policy about the potential failure of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and how the West should prepare for it. Palestine is like humanity's collective affliction, a cancer I dare say that has shadowed man as far back as Palestine was first inhabited.
I share the sentiments of Sachs that indeed, the Israeli-Palestinian problem will never truly be solved in any conventional way. The problem will be there, like an incurable ailment that festers but can be controlled. For one, the Palestinians are fractious, fragmented and disorganized. It is also divided between the secular leaning Palestinian Authority controlled by member's of Yasser Arafat's Fatah Party that controls the West Bank and the right-wing Islamist Hamas organization that controls the Gaza Strip. The single best stumbling block in negotiating with the Palestinians is that you can't really negotiate without the participation and approval of either of the two power structures that control the political and social life of Palestinians, Hamas and Fatah. Either one can derail the functionality of any negotiated settlement conducted with either power group but disapproved by the other.
In addition, the Palestinian populace itself is susceptible to manipulation by religious leaders who most often stir the commission of violence under various pretexts and excuses. Unless the Palestinians establish a credible, representative and secular body that really represents the broad swath of the Palestinian population, then there can be body in which Israel can effectively negotiate with in the first place - negating any plans for peace.
The Palestinian population must therefore opt for a secular society managed and run by secularists and pragmatists, not religious bigots and fanatics who believe only in the righteousness of their cause. Such fanatical organizations are really impossible to talk to as they have already set their minds on certain matters. Because they are guided by religious fervor, there is really no chance for an open, mature and responsible negotiations with them.
Israel will never be secure without the West Bank under it's control. The West Bank is a strategic survival piece of land that Israel can never truly give up, yes, not really. Without the West Bank, Israel is physically vulnerable to being cut off from it's northern and southern regions. The West Bank is critical if Israel is to survive in any future surprise attack from the Arab world - and there will always be that possibility, always!
Israel therefore must live with a permanent readiness. It cannot do otherwise if it is to maintain its existence as a nation, a state and a country. The real threat to Israel therefore is the creeping power and influence of the Hasidic Jews, who benefit from Israel's existence yet shy away from contributing meaningfully to its upkeep, such as their refusal to render military service, engage in meaningful employment and of course, pay taxes.
As long as Israel remains a secular Jewish state, then it can and it will survive in an Arab sea. The West Bank must forever be controllable by Israel, and to ensure it can be done, the settlements must stay. It really has no choice. There will always be segments of the Palestinian populace who will never accept Israel, and for that, Israel must guard itself against complacency and somnolence.
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