U.S. Strike on Syria Imminent: Implications for Middle East Stability

By now it is undoubtedly clear that chemical weapons were indeed used in the killing of several Syrian men, women and children last August 21. Now the big question on everyone's mind is, what will America do about it?

Before answering such a question, a primary task will be to identify who perpetrated the attack? Some reports indicate that a few days before the chemical attack, Israeli intelligence intercepted chatter from Syrian military commanders about the movement of chemical stocks. Although such actions are circumstantial evidence, we need to wait further results from the U.N. inspection team currently in Syria to determine what chemical was used and another pertinent technical data which could point to the real actor behind the attack. FP reported that US intelligence even overhead a panicked call between a regime official and a commander of a chemical unit about the release of chemical agents that killed 1,000 people. What is not clear is whether the attack was even ordered by Assad or was the work of a rogue general.

Second, the need to act is needed otherwise it will embolden the Assad regime to escalate the brutality of future its actions. As the CNN report indicate, to not act would do more harm than to act.

Now comes the question, what should America do? The Obama administration is loathe to get the US involved in anther Middle Eastern quagmire and so the most likely US response would be a missile or drone attack. Such attack would lessen the risk to US life, indeed avoid it altogether. Regardless, any military response must not be too crushing as to actually collapse the current regime. However unpalatable that may sound, the risk of a militant Islamist regime that has a high likelihood of taking its place is too high and not to mention the ensuing free for all slaughter that will eventually come through as rebels kill each other off as they scramble to consolidate power. Remember Iraq after Saddam's fall?

Without doubt, the fall of the current regime will trigger a graver, more brutal, chaotic and repressive Middle East, much worse, much, much worse than Iraq has ever been as Iran will surely insert itself as it already has through Hezbollah further into the conflict. The proxy war now played out between Saudi Arabia and Qatar on one side and Iran through Hezbollah on the other will become full blown to say the least. Meanwhile, civilians will die as never before since the start of the conflict two years ago. Killing will become a constant, daily, hourly even phenomenon.

The West will never be able to guarantee a friendly and reasonable ally to replace Assad. At the current retinue of rebels, none could possibly be counted upon to respect personal liberties, not to mention the rights of minorities such as the Alawites, Christians and other religious groups. The collapse of the Assad regime will precipitate the genocide of the Alawites as they move into its coastal strongholds.

America should militarily strike Assad after the chemical attack, but only after a thorough UN report has been made, studied and published so as to categorically lay the blame for the attack on the current regime and to ensure that a strong message is sent to Assad to avoid such future tactics.

The mistakes of Iraq must be avoided by America this time. All possible research has to be done to gather all needed information. War is a messy business, and in many cases, is needed to ensure peace, save lives and restore order, but it must be planned well to ensure that it will not create even more problems than it purports to solve.