Syria's Crawling Violence

As of date, the violence in Syria shows no signs of ending. In fact, it is slowly creeping to its neighbors, with Lebanon clearly its next destination. The palpable presence of Hezbollah in the Syrian battleground is a virtual give-away in this increasingly violent and vicious civil war. In the last few days, bullets and bombs from both the Syrian Army and Hezbollah have been exchanged in Lebanon, and there is no sign that such will not be exported to other parts of Lebanon.

Once Lebanon is fully engulfed, the inevitable next target is Israel, although Hezbollah might not actually fire the first shot. However, the next Israeli airstrike into Syrian airspace might prompt a response from al-Assad, for to do so would mean kowtowing to the Zionist entity, something Bashar will suffer among the Arab world. But then again, the Arab world is divided between the Alawites and it's Arab brethren, with the FSA and other rebel factions being supported by Sunni Saudi Arabia and Qatar, while the Shiite Alawite ruling elite of Syria is backed by Shiite Iran and its proxy Hezbollah.

As long as Russia continues to supply top grade military arsenal to the Syrian regime, and so long as Europe is fragmented in its Syria policy and that it actually does not send arms to the rebels, despite its lifting after two years, will ensure that a stalemate will be maintained in the foreseeable future. In this regard, a stalemate will guarantee that Damascus will remain with al-Assad. Which also means that the civil war will drag on for the next year or two, until something radically different occurs - such as U.S. active military involvement, dim at best under the Obama administration.

If the war escalates to other countries, Jordan could be the next party after Lebanon and Israel. The U.S. has recently sent military paraphernalia to Jordan, a sign that once Jordan is dragged to the melee, the U.S. will too. Certainly, such event will prompt Russia to extend ever more military assistance to Bashar, and finally, a new front will open for American military intervention, unless Obama does not use his assets in Jordan. Which I doubt he won't, since such act would certainly cost the American president political points and haunt the Democratic party in the 2016 presidential elections.

Obama's paralytic response to Bashar's limited use of chemical weapons will only embolden the dictator to up the ante, and Obama will increasingly be shoved to a corner he might not be able to recover from politically. By then, he will have lost credibility among his allies and contempt among his enemies, by that I mean Syria, Iran and Hezbollah. This will fuel another round of brutality and violence the world will have to stomach in the foreseeable future.