An unexamined life is not worth living. Socrates

Linggo, Abril 7, 2013

Brinkmanship in the Korean Peninsula

The recent jingoistic outbursts emanating from the hermit kingdom, North Korea, has somehow rattled nerves in the West, and for good reason, North Korea is and has always been an unpredictable, cryptic and mysterious state with nuclear capabilities. You never really know what they're up to, at the same time, you don't want to take unnecessary risks, nor give the impression that you are ready to be blackmailed by threats of armageddon.

Like most analysts, it is really very difficult to ascertain what the regime of Kim Jung Un truly want to achieve from his bellicose posturing, but one thing is certain, it is a calculated move by the regime to get some sort of a bargaining chip later on. A way for it to hold a leverage over the powers that be, maybe to gain more concessions on food and fuel, items which the  DPRK perennially lacks, and if not for the loyal patronage of China, would have long ago descended into chaos and comprehensive starvation.

What the west needs to do now is to show, as it has rightfully done by far, that it will and can use its considerable military resources with devastating consequences. North Korea has to be taught to grow up, and now is the time to drill that framework to Kim Jong Un. The DPRK has to be shown that juvenile, really toddler-like tantrums, will no longer be rewarded with food aid and other concessions that has by far, only served to strengthen the North's resolve that the world is there for its whims and caprices to be catered to. North Korea will never attack the U.S., South Korea or Japan for the simple reason that they know that will be the end of their state. However, the west has to take this moment to show once and for all that previous "hospitality" of the west will no longer be played with coolness without a significant improvement in the North's behavior.

Kim Jong Un is also young, restless and inching to prove his mettle among his populace and this could play well into the myth making machine of the North Korean state to portray the third Kim as a legitimate, strong and dependable leader who will lead the North to "progress and stability."

The current state of affairs more than anything shows the insecurities and fears of the North Korean regime and should be managed with care and prudence without giving the appearance of appeasing its immature and childish antics. This will just be the start of long tug-of-war with the regime of Kim Jong Un - the world will have to deal with this outbursts for many years to come.

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