The war in Syria will be almost two years now and there is no sign
that it is going to get any better. The rebels are gaining more ground
but the government of Bashar al-Assad is holding its own. The spectre
for an even greater humanitarian tragedy than it already is is getting
ever more real by the day. And upon all these suffering, it is the women
and children, the sick and the disabled, the weak and the poor that are
and will continue to suffer.
Bashar al-Assad will
definitely fight on as long as he can, for as long as he can to a
possibly very long stalemante. He will never abandon Damascus until all
cards have been played and until his government can no longer defend and
sustain the fighting. I believe he knows that he will never be able to
rule Syria as before, so he will fight rather to keep the interests of
the Alawite community to which he, his family and most senior members of
his government and military belong.
The Syrian Civil
War will range on through 2013 and will only be predictable, concerning
its end, when Russia and China publicly withdraws its support for
al-Assad's government. In as much as the rebels are determined to fight
on, the government is equally determined to hold them at bay. The
Alawites know very well that the collapse of the al-Assad dynasty will
bring social, economic and religious marginalization at its best and
reprisals at its worst.
If and when the rebels finally
gain a foothold in Damascus, the Alawites will barricade themselves in
their heartland - the eastern coast of Syria and the Alawite mountains
bordering Lebanon. The new government will have to wrestle the Alawites
to submission, which could prolong the war again for many years at best.
I am sure that once the rebels win, the Islamists will most likely
grab power and impose a religious rule over Syria. The Christian
minority will most likely ally themselves with the Alawites, and in an
Islamist dominated rebel government, they will be persecuted. The scale
of human tragedy will definitely not end with the fall of the al-Assads.
The
future is bleak for Syria at it is now. Social reintegration will not
be taking place for the forceable future, regardless who eventually ends
up in power in Damascus.
The Arab Spring will have
finally brought forth the downfall of four Arab governments and the
potential to unseat the Hashemites of Jordan. When it does, the scale of
human cost will once again rise.
The question is, will Saudi Arabia be next?
Walang komento:
Mag-post ng isang Komento